Howell, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

056
FXUS61 KPHI 070155
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
955 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain south of the area
through Monday, as weak low pressure gradually pushes along it
and offshore by late Monday. This will lead to widespread
rainfall overnight into Monday. A strong cold front will push
offshore Monday night as low pressure strengthens across New
England, ushering in colder and drier high pressure through
Wednesday. The high pressure will shift offshore by Wednesday
night, then the next low pressure system will begin to impact
the region Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions expected tonight through
Monday.

An amplifying trough axis and phasing of the subtropical and
polar jets just to our north will continue to support unsettled
weather conditions through late Monday. At the surface, a
frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south through
Monday evening. A weak low pressure will gradually ride along it
tonight through Monday, then push offshore into Monday night.
Meanwhile, another surface low will take shape and move east out
of the Great Lakes region. This low will push a stronger cold
front trough the area Monday night.

A few showers will remain across the area through this evening.
There has been a slightly slower trend with the onset of the
more widespread rain tonight, and with it ending Monday. The
latest forecast was updated to reflect this trend.

With the frontal boundary to our south and strengthening jet
just to our north, widespread rainfall is expected to develop
tonight and persist into Monday morning owing to modest
isentropic ascent, which should peak in time between about 2 AM
and 8 AM. This is when the heaviest and most widespread rainfall
is most likely to be observed. Forcing will be maximized mainly
across the coastal plain to near I-95, which is where the
highest QPF around 0.5-1" is located. Farther north, lighter
rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" are forecast, though locally
heavier rainfall amounts are certainly possible across the
entire area due to various factors. While very limited, some
guidance indicates some elevated instability may be present near
the coastal plain overnight. This combined with the maximum in
synoptic forcing could lead to some rumbles of thunder
overnight.

With low level flow from the north to northeast around 5-10 mph
tonight, we`ll begin filtering in some colder air at the
surface despite lack of synoptic cold advection. Temperatures
tonight will be notably cooler by about 10 degrees compared to
last night, which lows by Monday morning in the mid 30s to low
40s. Highs Monday have trended cooler given the lingering
rainfall during the day, and are now main in the mid to upper
40s to near 50 degrees at best.

Temperatures should fall enough (near to just below freezing)
overnight across the Pocono Plateau to support a transition to a
wintry mix of snow and sleet, and perhaps some light freezing
rain near Mount Pocono. This will be occurring as drier air
begins filtering in, so any wintry accumulation will be minimal
at best, mainly a half inch of less of snow/sleet and trace
amounts of ice, if any. Given the limited accumulations and
lower confidence on any ice occurring at all, we do not plan to
issue an advisory for this at this time, but we`ll continue to
monitor the potential.

Rain (and any light wintry mix northwest) will begin to wane in
coverage and intensity by mid to late morning, especially
northwest of I-95. Farther south across the coastal plain and
especially near the coast itself, forcing will remain sufficient
enough to support periods of rain into the afternoon hours. So
decreasing PoPs were slowed some from the previous forecast.
While the most persistent rain will be over by late morning
northwest of I-95, chances of rain will linger through the
remainder of the day. Snow showers are possible across the
southern Poconos into Monday night.

The cold front will push through the area overnight, between
roughly midnight and 4 AM, and will be offshore by dawn as
synoptic cold advection ramps up. The front will help to finally
clear out the persistent cloudiness and foggy conditions we`ve
been experiencing. It will also be accompanied by a noticeable
increase in colder northwest winds to around 10-20 mph, with
some gusts near 30 mph possible overnight in the wake of the
front. Temperatures will drop well into the 30s by daybreak
Tuesday, and into the 20s for higher elevations northwest. Due
to the winds and much drier air, frost development is not a
concern despite the colder temperatures. Sub- freezing
temperatures are not expected across Delmarva, so no
Frost/Freeze headlines are anticipated for Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period Tuesday through Wednesday will be colder, drier, and
breezy to windy.

The trough axis will be pushing offshore by late Tuesday as we
remain in a post frontal cold advection regime into Tuesday
night. Relatively cold and dry Canadian high pressure will build
into the region through Tuesday night, then slide by to our
south and offshore into Wednesday.

Tuesday will be fairly windy, with northwest winds increasing
to near 15-25 mph and gusting into the 35-40 mph range. The
latest trend in the guidance has been for stronger winds on
Tuesday as the departing low pressure strengthens significantly
over New England. Low level wind fields respond by increasing to
near 30-35 kts. This should translate to frequent gusts (35-40
mph) by midday. While these winds should remain below advisory
criteria, the winds combined with soggy ground could lead to
some isolated impacts to trees or isolated power outages. We`ll
start out sunny initially, but broken to overcast stratocumulus
will develop as it typically the case in these patterns.

Temperatures in this period will be well below normal by about
10-15 degree across the board. Coldest Tuesday with highs in the
40s, likely failing to reach 50 degrees for most areas, and in
the 30s for the higher elevations northwest. Daytime winds
chills in the 30s will certainly make it feel quite chilly out
there. A widespread freeze is expected Tuesday night, with lows
by daybreak Wednesday in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees, even
for coastal areas. Winds will lessen significantly by the time
temperatures get that cold, but winds near 5-10 mph will produce
minimum wind chills near 20 degrees for most areas.

The airmass will be just starting to modify by Wednesday
afternoon following cessation of cold advection, but
temperatures will still struggle to rise through the 40s with
late afternoon highs near 50 degrees at best. WNW winds
persisting around 10-15 mph under sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...Moderating temperatures with highs likely returning
to near average for the end of the week into the weekend. It
looks to turn unsettled again to end the week.

Synoptic Overview...The next wave in the upper-level trough
begins to amplify Wednesday night into Thursday across the
Midwest to the Tennessee Valley with additional energy dropping
southeastward. Some guidance shows this trough becoming closed
off as it arrives into the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday. At the
surface, high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday. Low pressure and its associated cold front approaches
Thursday night into Friday, then it may slow as it reaches the
Mid-Atlantic region later Friday and Saturday as it potentially
becomes trapped under a closed low.

For Wednesday night...With high pressure remaining in control
as it shifts offshore, winds will diminish but also back to more
southerly. This will start to increase the surface dew points
at least some. While the air mass will be moderating some aloft,
dew points below freezing should yield a rather cold night
especially if the wind is able to completely decouple and dew
points remain below freezing. There may however be some clouds
increasing from the west and the height and thickness of them
could have some impact on temperatures. Forecast low
temperatures are not as cold as Tuesday night as a result. While
there is some risk for frost and/or freeze (the growing season
has started for most of our Delmarva zones), this will depend on
the above factors.

For Thursday through Sunday...As energy dives southeastward out
of the Midwest and into the Tennessee Valley Thursday, an
upper-level trough is forecast to then amplify eastward and
settle once again across the East. Some guidance has this trough
closing off as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic region and vicinity.
A surface low tied to this incoming trough may slow its
eastward progression especially if the trough becomes closed
off. A warm front will initially be approaching our area from
the southwest later Thursday, then the main low arrives later
Friday into Saturday. On Thursday, a slower solution would delay
the onset of showers with more of the showers or even periods
of rain developing sometime on Friday and continuing into
Saturday. An increasing number of model solutions show as the
trough aloft closes off, the surface low could become a
nor`easter centered either over the region or just offshore
Saturday morning. The system does look to continue to shift
northeastward through the day on Saturday but some precipitation
may continue to wrap around the low with the closed low
overhead. Overall, the evolution of this entire system remains
less certain at this time range and therefore PoPs are held in
the mid/high chance to low likely range (40-60 percent) through
Saturday before backing off to 30 percent or less Saturday night
and Sunday. Temperatures do look to be close to average,
although if a nor`easter does develop with strengthening onshore
flow then temperatures would end up cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...MVFR ceilings developing early, with IFR expected
overnight areawide. Widespread rain showers will move into the
area between 00Z and 06Z. The heaviest rain is expected after
08Z. Reduced visibilities will be likely with the heavier
showers, but ceilings under 1 kft will be the primary driver of
the IFR conditions. North-northeast wind 5-10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Monday...IFR/MVFR. While rain showers will likely become less
widespread towards and after 18Z, ceilings look to remain under
1 kft until late afternoon. After 20Z, ceilings will likely
begin to lift some, though conditions are expected to improve to
MVFR at best through 00Z. North-northeast wind 5-10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...Any restrictions likely ending by 06Z as a cold
front pushes offshore. Northwest winds increasing, with gusts
near 25 kts possible.

Tuesday...VFR. Strong northwest winds with gusts near 30-35 kts
possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday Night and Friday...Areas of sub-VFR conditions may
develop with increasing chances for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM for seas
near 3- 5 feet. Seas dropping some overnight into Monday, though
potentially lingering near 5 feet offshore of Delaware Bay.
Northeast winds 10- 20 kts. Periods of rain developing late
tonight through Monday with visibility 1-3 NM possible.

Outlook...

Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions developing by 2
AM with northwest winds increasing with gusts near 25-30 kts
possible.

Tuesday...Advisory conditions expected, with gale force wind
gusts near 35 kts possible. Gale Watch was issued for this
period for all Delaware Bay and Atlantic coastal waters.

Tuesday night...Advisory conditions likely lingering much of
the night.

Wednesday...No marine hazards expected.

Wednesday night through Friday...The conditions are anticipated
to be mainly below Small Craft Advisory criteria but a few
gusts of around 25 knots with seas near 5 feet are possible,
particularly on Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...AKL/Gorse
AVIATION...AKL/Cooper/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/Staarmann